B+LNZ New Season Outlook 2023-24

The outlook for the global beef market is driven by North American demand in 2023-24. In tandem with their economic woes, China has struggled to compete with this demand from the US, since the US became the top market for New Zealand’s beef exports in May.

The projected strengthening of the NZD is an inhibiting factor for export returns in the 2023-24 season, offsetting positive in-market increases. The average FOB per tonne is expected to increase 1.2 per cent in 2023-24, which is 6.6 per cent above the five-year average.

Beef and veal exports are forecast to be 3.6 per cent down on 2022-23 at 467,000 tonnes shipped weight.

Export revenue from beef and veal (including co-products) in the 2023-24 season is forecast to be $4.76 billion FOB, down 2.6 per cent on 2022-23.

At USD0.64, the estimated average annual price for P steer/heifer (270- 295kg) is 601 cents per kg for 2023-24. It is forecast to average 399 cents per kg for M cow (170-195kg), which includes a large component of cull dairy cows, and 592 cents per kg for M bull (270 295kg).