Beef Market Outlook

Silver Fern Farms:

US domestic prices are up and export volumes are down, with their beef kill finally dropping below 600k head last week.

Imported grinding meat pricing traded sideways this week as end users absorb the recent lifts in the market. The reducing kill in the US is presenting increasing opportunities for NZ chilled grass fed beef in the retail sector both in USA and Canada.

A higher Australian kill at 130k head per week has lifted their exports with fatter trim prices weaker across Asia, on the reverse, steak cuts in Australia are up 20% from December as export demand has improved. The mixed market dynamics are hard to get a handle on.

Things are tracking sideways in China, with no changes to pricing on chilled or frozen product reflecting a flat market. A combination of economic issues and an excess of available protein mean there’s little to lift prices here. 

The Japan and Korean markets have continued to firm on selected cuts as end users replace grass fed beef in certain menu items. This has occurred in previous cycles when US beef exports have reduced and export prices have gone too high, this is particularly helpful when the China market demand has slowed.

At home New Zealand has been short of product, as exports have improved, so domestic pricing is firming up too.

The Middle East continues to perform steadily, with some logistics issues around the Red Sea but markets like United Arab Emirates remain accessible.


Murray Behrent, General Manager Livestock and Shareholder Services at Alliance Group, said: “The outlook for high quality premium grass-fed antibiotic-free beef looks favourable in North America. The pricing we are currently seeing is expected to hold with an anticipated lift in the early part of the winter. We are seeing strong demand for our award-winning Handpicked 21 Day Aged Beef and 55 Day Aged range in our global markets including New Zealand, which is pleasing. Alliance has been steadily increasing its beef presence in recent years including investing in our beef processing capabilities and a differentiated product portfolio. Last year, Alliance achieved record throughputs across our beef processing sites at Mataura, Pukeuri and Levin.”


Steady to downward pressure from now until end of May.

Price Trend Graphs

If you are interested in viewing the price trend graphs for the past 10 years then please click here: